{"id":15061,"date":"2025-08-27T17:19:45","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T17:19:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=15061"},"modified":"2025-08-27T21:21:30","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T21:21:30","slug":"usdcad-4th-wave-in-place","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/usdcad-4th-wave-in-place\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CAD Elliott Wave: 4th Wave In Place"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Executive Summary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Wave ((iv)) Completion<\/strong>: Wave ((iv)) wrapped up on Friday at 1.3924 leading to wave ((v)) lower.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>5th Wave<\/strong>: Wave ((v)) would be the ending wave of the larger downtrend pattern that began February 3.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Downside Target<\/strong>: Next trend appears lower in wave ((v)) possibly reaching 1.3426.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Current Elliott Wave Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Back on June 19, 3 days after wave ((iii)) finished, <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/usd-cad-relief-rally-underway\/\">we forecasted a rally<\/a> to 1.3914 in wave ((iv)).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rally trended to 1.3924 last Friday, August 22, then reversed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"767\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/USDCAD_2025-08-27_12-00-11-1024x767.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15062\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/USDCAD_2025-08-27_12-00-11-1024x767.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/USDCAD_2025-08-27_12-00-11-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/USDCAD_2025-08-27_12-00-11-768x576.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/USDCAD_2025-08-27_12-00-11.png 1173w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The reversal highlights the end of wave ((iv)) and wave ((v)) is in the early stages of a downtrend trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wave ((iv)) appears to have carved an (a)-(b)-(c) flat pattern where wave (c) was an ending diagonal pattern, a <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/rising-wedge-pattern\/\">rising wedge<\/a> type of pattern.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There were a lot of wave relationships appearing near 1.3914. First, the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\/\">38.2% Fibonacci retracement<\/a> level sits there. Second, a broken trend line from 2021 passes through the price zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With USDCAD now breaking below the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/support-and-resistance\/\">support trend line<\/a> of the ending diagonal pattern, we can confidently suggest that the top is in place for wave ((iv)).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This implies an <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/elliott-wave-theory\/\">Elliott wave<\/a> 5th wave lower that likely targets 1.3426. Using the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-extensions\/\">Fibonacci extension tool<\/a>, wave ((v)) would be 100% to wave ((i)) near 1.3426. Also, there is a September 2024 swing low near there at 1.3419 (not shown).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>USD\/CAD finalized wave ((iv)) on Friday and is declining in wave ((v)). We anticipate wave ((v)) to reach near 1.3426. If 1.3924 is broken to the upside, then we\u2019ll consider other alternate wave counts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/CAD price finished a 4th wave and is declining in a 5th wave targeting 1.3426. Discover key levels we are closely watching.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":15065,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[16],"class_list":["post-15061","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-elliott-wave"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>USD\/CAD Elliott Wave: 4th Wave In Place - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"USD\/CAD price finished a 4th wave and is declining in a 5th wave targeting 1.3426. 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