{"id":14846,"date":"2025-08-20T11:20:40","date_gmt":"2025-08-20T11:20:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=14846"},"modified":"2025-08-20T11:20:40","modified_gmt":"2025-08-20T11:20:40","slug":"jackson-hole-preview-palantir-nvidia-august-2025","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/jackson-hole-preview-palantir-nvidia-august-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Jackson Hole Preview, Palantir Valued at $40, Nvidia Cracks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Markets face a loaded docket this week: Powell\u2019s Jackson Hole speech, Citron\u2019s $40 price target for Palantir, and Nvidia\u2019s long-awaited technical breakdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Behind the headlines, one chart is making the rounds \u2014 and it shows just how stretched equity valuations have become.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Nvidia Breaks Trend<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14856\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Nvidia (NVDA) slipped under its rising channel, breaking below its daily trendline. The $170\u2013$174 volume support zone is first in focus, but the more important level is the $150 &#8211; $153 support zone which aligns with a Value Area High, and <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\">Fibonacci levels<\/a> at $146.78.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given semiconductors have powered much of 2025\u2019s rally, this breakdown puts the broader tech trade on watch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Palantir Hit by Citron<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Citron Research (Hedge Fund) resurfaced with a rare short report, pegging Palantir\u2019s fair value at $40. The stock tumbled roughly 8% in a single day, stoking questions over whether this was an overdue reality check or simply an excuse for traders to take profits across tech.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/citronresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OpenAI-at-500B-Puts-Palantir-at-40.pdf\">See the report here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14853\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-2.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-2-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-2-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-2-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Tech Weakness, Broader Rotation<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The XLK and Nasdaq 100 both lost their trendlines, but rather than outright panic, the move looks more like <strong>rotation<\/strong>. Healthcare, homebuilders, and biotech outperformed over the last 24 hours, while tech dragged the indices. That\u2019s classic late-cycle positioning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14850\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-3.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-3-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-3-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-3-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For a better view of how each indice is performing, <a href=\"https:\/\/stockcharts.com\/freecharts\/perf.php?SPY,xlc,xly,xlp,xle,xlf,xlv,xli,xlb,xlre,xlk,xlu\">see the full comparison chart here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"658\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-etf-comparison.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14866\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-etf-comparison.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-etf-comparison-300x123.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-etf-comparison-1024x421.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-etf-comparison-768x316.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-etf-comparison-1536x632.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Valuation Concerns: A 2025 Warning Signal<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The real backdrop to all this volatility is valuation. According to Elliott Wave International and Bloomberg data, <strong>2024\u20132025 now ranks as the most overvalued market in history across combined metrics <\/strong>(P\/E, CAPE, P\/B, EV\/EBITDA, Q Ratio, Market Cap-to-GDP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"684\" height=\"646\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-overvalue.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14863\" style=\"width:439px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-overvalue.jpg 684w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-overvalue-300x283.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 684px) 100vw, 684px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart places today alongside 1929, 1966, and 1999: moments in time that preceded major corrections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Bottom line <strong>\u2014<\/strong> The US stock market is reaching an overvaluation level only seen one time in history, in 1929. While this chart alone does not signal the end of the macro-rally, it is a warning sign and a reflection of just how euphoric markets have become.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Eyes on Jackson Hole 2025<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1366\" height=\"480\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-jackson-hole.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14860\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-jackson-hole.jpg 1366w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-jackson-hole-300x105.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-jackson-hole-1024x360.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.20-jackson-hole-768x270.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1366px) 100vw, 1366px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This all sets the stage for Powell at Jackson Hole. With bond markets still calm, the near-term setup could be seasonal chop into September\u2013October before a potential year-end rally. But with valuations stretched, leverage rising among retail traders, and big tech under pressure, caution is warranted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Closing Thoughts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The selloff in Nvidia and Palantir may be short-term catalysts, but the real story is bigger: <strong>we are trading in one of the most overvalued environments ever recorded.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Powell\u2019s words this week could decide whether that bubble stretches further or starts to deflate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nvidia breaks trend, Citron targets Palantir at $40, and Jackson Hole looms as US stocks hit extreme overvaluation<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":14847,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-14846","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - 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