{"id":14631,"date":"2025-08-09T09:13:03","date_gmt":"2025-08-09T09:13:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=14631"},"modified":"2025-08-09T09:13:05","modified_gmt":"2025-08-09T09:13:05","slug":"rba-set-for-august-rate-cut-as-aud-usd-eyes-key-0-6380-support","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/rba-set-for-august-rate-cut-as-aud-usd-eyes-key-0-6380-support\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA Set for August Rate Cut as AUD\/USD Eyes Key 0.6380 Support"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Australia \u2013 All Eyes on the RBA<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) heads into its 12 August policy meeting with the market already fully pricing in a 25bps rate cut, taking the cash rate down to&nbsp;<strong>3.6%<\/strong>. This expectation follows a softer run of data, particularly on inflation and employment, that has strengthened the case for policy easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last month, the RBA held rates steady at&nbsp;<strong>3.85%<\/strong>, citing the need for more evidence that inflation was sustainably tracking toward its&nbsp;<strong>2.5%<\/strong>&nbsp;target. That evidence has since emerged:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>CPI:<\/strong>\u00a0Headline inflation slowed to\u00a0<strong>1.9% YoY<\/strong>\u00a0in June, with the trimmed mean easing to\u00a0<strong>2.1%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Labour market:<\/strong>\u00a0Employment rose by only\u00a0<strong>2,000<\/strong>\u00a0in June (vs. 20,000 expected), with a sharp fall in full-time jobs offset by part-time gains. Hours worked also slipped, hinting at weaker demand.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The data has validated dovish market expectations, but it has not dramatically shifted the outlook beyond August. Markets still expect around\u00a0<strong>62bps<\/strong>\u00a0of total cuts by year-end, with another move likely in\u00a0<strong>November or December<\/strong>. We maintain a slightly more hawkish stance, forecasting just one additional cut after August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>AUD\/USD Outlook:<\/strong><br>While the USD side remains dominant in driving price action, the combination of an August cut and global risk sentiment will shape the short-term trajectory. We have revised its year-end AUD\/USD forecast higher, now targeting\u00a0<strong>0.67<\/strong>, reflecting a relatively modest downside risk to the Aussie despite easing expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key U.S. Data &amp; Events<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Inflation (Tue):<\/strong>\u00a0Core CPI forecast\u00a0<strong>+0.4% MoM<\/strong>\u00a0(consensus: 0.3%), with tariff effects and higher vehicle prices in play.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Retail Sales &amp; Consumer Confidence (Fri):<\/strong>\u00a0Auto sales should lift headline figures, but sentiment remains fragile amid tariff worries and softer job confidence.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>U.S. Weekly View:<\/strong><br>July\u2019s inflation data will be the market\u2019s focal point, with potential upside surprises in goods prices due to tariff impacts. However, structural disinflationary forces\u2014such as cooling housing rents\u2014should keep medium-term inflation concerns in check. Retail sales may print solidly, but consumer confidence is showing cracks that could foreshadow softer H2 spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key U.K. Data &amp; Events<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Jobs Report (Tue):<\/strong>\u00a0Payroll employment has been slipping for months; risks remain for another weak print, though historical revisions often soften the blow.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>GDP (Thu):<\/strong>\u00a0Q2 growth likely weaker after Q1\u2019s export surge (ahead of tariffs), but activity probably still grew modestly through spring.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>U.K. Weekly View:<\/strong><br>The Bank of England remains surprisingly calm about the jobs slowdown, but another soft payroll figure could test that stance. GDP may confirm a decelerating but still-resilient economy, with external trade distortions unwinding after the tariff pre-loading in Q1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>AUD\/USD Technical Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"714\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-1024x714.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14634\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-1024x714.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-300x209.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-768x535.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-1536x1071.png 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-2048x1427.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The 4-hour AUD\/USD chart shows a&nbsp;<strong>choppy and overlapping advance<\/strong>&nbsp;in what appears to be wave&nbsp;<strong>(1) or (A)<\/strong>, followed by the start of a corrective move. The current rebound from point&nbsp;<strong>A<\/strong>&nbsp;to&nbsp;<strong>B<\/strong>&nbsp;is unfolding within a narrow ascending channel\u2014often a hallmark of a&nbsp;<strong>corrective bear flag<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Technical Levels:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Immediate resistance:<\/strong>\u00a00.6550\u20130.6560 (channel top)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support zone:<\/strong>\u00a00.6380 (potential wave C target)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Major support:<\/strong>\u00a00.6300\u20130.6320<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Scenario 1 \u2013 Deeper Correction:<\/strong><br>If price breaks down from the channel, a decline toward&nbsp;<strong>0.6380<\/strong>&nbsp;could complete a corrective ABC structure. The question is whether this level acts as a launchpad for another leg higher in line with the broader monthly uptrend, or whether the correction extends further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Scenario 2 \u2013 Early Bounce:<\/strong><br>A sustained move above&nbsp;<strong>0.6560<\/strong>&nbsp;would suggest the corrective phase may already be over, opening a path back toward&nbsp;<strong>0.6700<\/strong>&nbsp;into year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, the bias remains for a&nbsp;<strong>pullback toward 0.6380<\/strong>&nbsp;before a potential bounce, but USD dynamics\u2014particularly around U.S. inflation data\u2014could accelerate or truncate that move.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The RBA is expected to ease policy next week, with AUD\/USD traders watching a potential drop toward 0.6380 support as U.S. and U.K. data take center stage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":162,"featured_media":14632,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[14],"class_list":["post-14631","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-weekly-outlook"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - 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