{"id":14298,"date":"2025-07-28T11:54:57","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T11:54:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=14298"},"modified":"2025-07-29T14:16:36","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T14:16:36","slug":"eurusd-wedge-july-2025","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/eurusd-wedge-july-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD Stalls Despite Tariff Relief \u2014 What\u2019s Holding It Back?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Despite the bullish tariff news, EUR\/USD remains inside a rising wedge pattern on both the weekly and daily timeframes. It is currently stalling beneath a major volume resistance zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent trade agreement between the US and EU \u2014 which reduced previously threatened tariffs to 15% \u2014 gave the euro a brief boost. However, price action hasn\u2019t confirmed any true breakout yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the technical structure remains bullish, momentum is visibly waning, and EUR\/USD is struggling to push through the<strong> top of a rising channel<\/strong>, and a volume resistance zone ($1.178 \u2014 $1.194).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key takeaway from here is this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>EUR\/USD technicals are short term bearish.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, fundamentals point to a mid term bullish EUR\/USD.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019ll all come down to the Euro-Dollar asset confirming a direction via price action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Technical Analysis of EUR\/USD (Late July 2025)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Weekly View \u2014 Rising Channel and Critical Zones<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.28-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14305\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.28-2.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.28-2-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.28-2-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.28-2-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the start of 2021, EUR\/USD has fallen from the <strong>$1.20 region<\/strong> to a low near <strong>$0.98<\/strong>, briefly hitting parity in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But since that bottom, the pair has staged an impressive recovery \u2014 climbing back toward the<strong> $1.178 area<\/strong>, now just a few cents away from its 4-year high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, price is currently stalling at the<strong> $1.178 range<\/strong>, which lines up precisely with the top of a rising channel on the weekly chart. If bulls want to push higher, this zone must be broken convincingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Volume-Based Zones (Last 4 Years)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Immediate Resistance:<\/strong> $1.178 \u2013 $1.194<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Major Resistance (4-Year High):<\/strong> $1.209 \u2013 $1.2176<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Immediate Support:<\/strong> $1.155 \u2013 $1.161<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Lower Support:<\/strong> $1.126 \u2013 $1.134<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Critical Support (Point of Control):<\/strong> $1.0816 \u2013 $1.0896<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>RSI Context<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/relative-strength-index\/\">RSI<\/a> has been climbing steadily throughout 2025, reflecting strong bullish momentum \u2014 but also signalling the risk of exhaustion. It has now <strong>tapped into overbought territory twice this year,<\/strong> with the most recent move forming a <strong>bearish RSI failure swing<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s often seen as a <strong>warning sign for bulls<\/strong> and can precede a retracement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Daily View \u2014 Rising Wedge and Anchored vWAP Support<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.28-1-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14302\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.28-1-1.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.28-1-1-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.28-1-1-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.28-1-1-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>On the daily chart, EUR\/USD has rejected the top of a rising channel, giving shape to a <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/rising-wedge-pattern\/\"><strong>rising wedge<\/strong><\/a> \u2014 a bearish pattern often seen before reversals, especially when price begins compressing like this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Price is now testing the lower wedge trendline, with <strong>$1.155\u2013$1.161<\/strong> as the first support. If that breaks, watch <strong>$1.126\u2013$1.134<\/strong>, a stronger zone that aligns with the <strong>anchored vWAP from March 2025<\/strong> \u2014 a key level marking the average price of this rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Should this zone give way, the next target is <strong>$1.0816\u2013$1.0896<\/strong>, the Point of Control since 2021. That would mark a deeper pullback, approaching parity levels; though this outcome seems less likely for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With the market still pricing in a Fed rate cut in September and midterm fundamentals supporting the euro, this may just be a short-term correction in an overall bullish trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud83d\udcc9 <strong>Technicals:<\/strong> Lean short-term bearish \u2014 rising wedge under pressure<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\udcc8 <strong>Fundamentals:<\/strong> Mid-term bullish \u2014 driven by easing Fed and trade relief<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\udd01 <strong>Conclusion:<\/strong> A retracement seems logical here, but broader continuation still favoured<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>You may also be interested in:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"647WVTYCDs\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/u-s-weekly-economic-outlook-fed-faces-tough-balancing-act-as-inflation-persists\/\">Fed\u2019s Balancing Act in Focus as Inflation Lingers and USDJPY Eyes Key Breakout<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Fed\u2019s Balancing Act in Focus as Inflation Lingers and USDJPY Eyes Key Breakout&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/u-s-weekly-economic-outlook-fed-faces-tough-balancing-act-as-inflation-persists\/embed\/#?secret=fAPY0BhAZE#?secret=647WVTYCDs\" data-secret=\"647WVTYCDs\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EUR\/USD forms a rising wedge after rejecting key resistance. Anchored vWAP and Fed cut expectations may offer support for a midterm bullish continuation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":14299,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-14298","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>EUR\/USD Stalls Despite Tariff Relief \u2014 What\u2019s Holding It Back? - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"EUR\/USD forms a rising wedge after rejecting key resistance. 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