{"id":14251,"date":"2025-07-23T11:08:31","date_gmt":"2025-07-23T11:08:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=14251"},"modified":"2025-07-23T11:08:33","modified_gmt":"2025-07-23T11:08:33","slug":"audusd-resistance-july-2025","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/audusd-resistance-july-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD Faces Major Volume Resistance from Multi-Year Downtrend"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Aussie-Dollar has been pushing higher continuously in a bullish directional leg <strong>since April.<\/strong> Now, it\u2019s approaching a volume resistance zone \u2014 the anchored vWAP of February 2021 ($0.6795), and Point of Control since Feb 2021 ($0.6970).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A break above this zone would be significant, but it\u2019s not the final hurdle. The Value Area High (VAH) at <strong>$0.6970<\/strong> remains the key line in the sand. That\u2019s the level where we can finally say the long-term downtrend has been broken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Aussie-Dollar is in a Downtrend? But We\u2019re So Bullish!<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, while AUD\/USD has shown signs of strength in recent months, the long-term structure is still bearish. Since peaking in early 2021, the pair has been locked inside a descending channel \u2014 and price is approaching the top of that structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.23.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14252\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.23.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.23-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.23-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.23-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And yes, there\u2019s been some recovery over the past year. But <strong>each rally has made lower highs, <\/strong>and until that changes, the overall bias remains cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Macro Factors at Play<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u2705 <\/strong>Bullish Factors<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>US\u2013Japan trade deal<\/strong> has boosted global risk sentiment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Weaker USD<\/strong> on tariff fears and soft US data<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strong commodity demand<\/strong>, especially from China, backing AUD<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u26a0\ufe0f <\/strong>Bearish Factors<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Australian unemployment<\/strong> just rose to 4.3% \u2014 the highest in years<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>RBA may pivot dovish<\/strong>, with markets pricing in a cut as soon as August<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Heavy resistance zone<\/strong> with long-term volume memory<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bottom Line: Remain Cautious As We Trend Higher<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The momentum is real \u2014 but so is the resistance. We&#8217;re not just bumping into any ceiling; this is a multi-year volume cluster that has<strong> capped every major rally since 2021.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Until we get a confirmed weekly close above $0.6970, traders should stay tactical. The structure hasn\u2019t flipped yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>KEY TECHNICAL RESISTANCES TO WATCH:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Value Area High \u2014 $0.6970<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Anchored vWAP (Average Price since 2021) \u2014 $0.6795<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Point of Control \u2014 $0.6725<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Top of Channel \u2014 Approximately $0.66 to $0.67<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Watch price action closely here, this is where trend and structure collide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You may also be interested in:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"68GSqEvuMf\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/coca-cola-q2-2025-earnings\/\">Coca-Cola Q2 2025 Earnings: Margin Beat Overshadows Weak Demand, but Can the $69 Support Hold?<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Coca-Cola Q2 2025 Earnings: Margin Beat Overshadows Weak Demand, but Can the $69 Support Hold?&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/coca-cola-q2-2025-earnings\/embed\/#?secret=XDjzWpY80T#?secret=68GSqEvuMf\" data-secret=\"68GSqEvuMf\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/USD tests key resistance near $0.6970. A breakout could end the multi-year downtrend, but strong volume memory warns of possible rejection.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":14255,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-14251","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>AUD\/USD Faces Major Volume Resistance from Multi-Year Downtrend - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"AUD\/USD tests key resistance near $0.6970. 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