{"id":14095,"date":"2025-07-21T10:20:06","date_gmt":"2025-07-21T10:20:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=14095"},"modified":"2025-07-21T10:41:21","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T10:41:21","slug":"alt-season-genius-act","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/alt-season-genius-act\/","title":{"rendered":"Genius Act Signed, Bitcoin and Alts Surge \u2014 What\u2019s Next?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Bitcoin printed a record weekly high, Ethereum exploded over 20%, and the Altcoin Season Index just broke above 50 \u2014 a key threshold that hints alt momentum may only be getting started.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"730\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/OB-25.07.21-cmc.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14102\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/OB-25.07.21-cmc.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/OB-25.07.21-cmc-300x137.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/OB-25.07.21-cmc-1024x467.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/OB-25.07.21-cmc-768x350.jpg 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/OB-25.07.21-cmc-1536x701.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>On the macro side, \u201cCrypto Week\u201d in Washington has delivered actual wins, with the Genius Act now law, and other major bills clearing the House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you&#8217;re waiting for a signal, this week might\u2019ve just dropped three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Crypto Week Recap<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week was a critical moment for U.S. crypto policy:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Genius Act Signed<\/strong>: Stablecoin regulation now official (1:1 USD\/Treasury reserves, monthly audits, AML rules).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>ETH ETF Inflows<\/strong>: $727M in a single day, ~$2B+ in July alone.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Alt Season Index<\/strong>: Climbed past 50 for the first time in months.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Regulatory Momentum<\/strong>: Clarity Act + Anti-CBDC bill passed House.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Optimism for institutional adoption is running high, but full implementation could take 1\u20133 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Patience is required, so let\u2019s look at some technicals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bitcoin is Coiling Up in a 4H Symmetrical Triangle<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin surged early last week, hitting the $120K\u2013$123K range before getting rejected near the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-extensions\/\"><strong>78.6% fib extension<\/strong><\/a>. Since then, it\u2019s formed a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/symmetrical-triangle-pattern\/\">symmetrical triangle<\/a> on the 4H chart<\/strong>, a classic consolidation pattern before large breakout moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Volume is clustering at the apex of the triangle, visible through the <strong>anchored volume profile<\/strong>, showing aggressive positioning ahead of a likely breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Technicals to Watch:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud83d\udfe9 <strong>Measured move (UP)<\/strong>: $126,000<br>\ud83d\udfe5 <strong>Measured move (DOWN)<\/strong>: $110,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\udcc9 <strong>Reclaim needed<\/strong>: All-time high at $122,960<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u26a0\ufe0f <strong>CME gap<\/strong>: $114.4K\u2013$115.6K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83e\uddf2 <strong>High-volume node<\/strong>: ~61.8% fib, overlaps with $110K\u2013$111K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\udd35 <strong>Anchored VWAP<\/strong> from June lows aligns with $110K support<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14106\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If price breaks out upward, it\u2019s not enough to just pierce the ATH, <strong>it must hold above $122,960<\/strong> with strength to avoid another fakeout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If price breaks downward, the most logical path is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fill the CME gap<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Drop into the 110K\u2013111K area, where strong historical support and volume structure sit in confluence with the anchored VWAP.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A retest and hold of $110K <\/strong>could actually be bullish in the mid-term, setting up the next leg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ETH\/USDT is On a Massive Run, and ETH\/BTC Shows Strength<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Ethereum gained over 26% last week, massively outperforming Bitcoin, which ended the week red (-1.48%). The rally has been backed by over $2B in ETF inflows since early July, including $727M in a single day \u2014 the strongest daily figure to date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ETH\/USDT formed a solid base at the $2,560\u2013$2,654 range<\/strong>, where anchored VWAPs from the December 2024 high and April 2025 low converge with the VAL. From there, price exploded upward, and is now approaching volume resistance zones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Technicals to Watch:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud83d\udfe9 <strong>Base Support<\/strong>: $2,560\u2013$2,654\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Anchored VWAP agreement near VAL<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Previously broken resistance flipped cleanly into support<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\udfea <strong>Retracement Zone<\/strong>: $3,268\u2013$3,361\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Consolidation cluster from 2024<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Matches volume shelf mid-range<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83c\udfaf <strong>Bullish Target<\/strong>: $4,000\u2013$4,100\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Final resistance before ATH zone<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\uded1 <strong>Macro Resistance<\/strong>: $4,624\u2013$4,868 (ATH zone)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-3-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14112\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-3-1.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-3-1-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-3-1-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-3-1-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>ETH\/USDT is moving with conviction, but <strong>keep in mind that a retest of the $3,268\u2013$3,361 area wouldn\u2019t invalidate the trend<\/strong> \u2014 it would simply be a healthy mid-cycle check.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>ETH\/BTC has bounced from the \u20bf0.0224 zone, and is now <strong>approaching a critical macro trendline<\/strong> that\u2019s held since July 2022. This trendline intersects with a high-volume node at \u20bf0.0385, making this a major breakout level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If ETH clears that area, the upside opens up fast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Technicals to Watch:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud83d\udcc8 <strong>Immediate Resistance<\/strong>: \u20bf0.0340\u2013\u20bf0.0356\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Former support now flipped<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>High volume shelf confirmation<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\udd3a <strong>Breakout Level<\/strong>: \u20bf0.0385\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Multi-year descending trendline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>High volume node intersection<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83c\udfaf <strong>Macro Target<\/strong>: \u20bf0.0515\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If trendline breaks, room for a 19.80% rally from current level<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\udcc9 <strong>Key Support<\/strong>: \u20bf0.0268\u2013\u20bf0.0281\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Structure + previous breakout zone<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14115\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-4.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-4-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-4-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-4-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>If ETH breaks \u20bf0.0385<\/strong>, this would likely lead to a multi-week capital rotation out of BTC into majors, then eventually mid-cap and low-cap alts \u2014 the typical alt season cascade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>TOTAL2 Altcoin Market Cap is in a Rising Channel<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>TOTAL2 \u2014 which tracks the altcoin market excluding BTC \u2014 is<strong> pushing toward the top of a rising logarithmic channel<\/strong> that\u2019s been intact since late 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The move is orderly, supported by solid structure, and currently testing one of the final resistance zones before price discovery. But this is also where rallies typically <em>cool off<\/em>, especially if Bitcoin chops or rejects from its own ATH region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Technicals to Watch:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud83d\udfe6 <strong>Local Support Zone<\/strong>: $1.22T\u2013$1.33T\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Former resistance turned support<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Base of the last breakout<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u26aa <strong>Mid-Channel Support<\/strong>: ~$1.32T\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Acts as dynamic support in rising log channel<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Validated multiple times historically<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\udfea <strong>Current Resistance Zone<\/strong>: $1.49T\u2013$1.56T\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Top of local supply<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strong historical rejection in April<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\udd3a <strong>Macro Resistance<\/strong>: $1.71T (All-Time High Market Cap)\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Final ceiling before blue-sky<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83c\udfaf <strong>Breakout Objective<\/strong>: $2T\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Top boundary of the channel<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Would mark full alt season expansion<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14109\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-1.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-1-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-1-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-1-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>TOTAL2 shows that <strong>alts are climbing in a structured way<\/strong>, but they haven\u2019t <em>exploded<\/em> yet. This zone between $1.49T and $1.71T is the proving ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Hold it and we could be looking at a full-scale alt season.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fail it and we likely range or dip.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14118\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-2.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-2-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-2-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/COTD-25.07.21-2-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion \u2014 Breakout or Fakeout?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The market is showing serious signs of strength \u2014 but it\u2019s not a free-for-all just yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin is coiling, Ethereum is running, and the broader altcoin market is pressing into major resistance. Whether we explode higher or fake out depends on two key conditions playing out this week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\ud83d\udd11 What Needs to Happen:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>BTC<\/strong> must break and hold above $122,960 \u2014 reclaiming the ATH decisively<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>ETH\/BTC<\/strong> must break \u20bf0.0385 \u2014 confirming rotation into alts<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>TOTAL2<\/strong> must sustain above $1.49T\u2013$1.56T \u2014 turning resistance into support<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\ud83d\udea8 What to Watch:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A pullback into $110K (BTC) or $3.3K (ETH) is <strong>not bearish<\/strong> unless those levels break<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If ETH\/BTC fails at trendline resistance, altcoin momentum likely pauses<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If BTC stalls near ATH while ETH\/BTC breaks out \u2014 <strong>ideal alt season conditions<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You may also be interested in:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"RiulcvVZjn\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/\">Housing Slump and a Silent Fed &#8211; Closer Look At the Euro-Yield<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Housing Slump and a Silent Fed &#8211; Closer Look At the Euro-Yield&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/embed\/#?secret=vOZUetAyTh#?secret=RiulcvVZjn\" data-secret=\"RiulcvVZjn\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alt Season Index climbs above 50. Ethereum\u2019s outperforming, and Bitcoin is coiling for a breakout. Crypto overview technical analysis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":14099,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-14095","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Genius Act Signed, Bitcoin and Alts Surge \u2014 What\u2019s Next? - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Alt Season Index climbs above 50. Ethereum\u2019s outperforming, and Bitcoin is coiling for a breakout. 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Crypto overview technical analysis.","og_url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/alt-season-genius-act\/","og_site_name":"Alchemy Markets","article_modified_time":"2025-07-21T10:41:21+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1536,"height":1024,"url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/OB-25.07.21-1.png","type":"image\/png"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Tempo di lettura stimato":"6 minuti"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/alt-season-genius-act\/","url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/alt-season-genius-act\/","name":"Genius Act Signed, Bitcoin and Alts Surge \u2014 What\u2019s Next? - Alchemy Markets","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/alt-season-genius-act\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/alt-season-genius-act\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/OB-25.07.21-1.png","datePublished":"2025-07-21T10:20:06+00:00","dateModified":"2025-07-21T10:41:21+00:00","description":"Alt Season Index climbs above 50. Ethereum\u2019s outperforming, and Bitcoin is coiling for a breakout. 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