{"id":14037,"date":"2025-07-18T22:14:24","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T22:14:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=14037"},"modified":"2025-07-18T22:18:32","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T22:18:32","slug":"housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing Slump and a Silent Fed – Closer Look At the Euro-Yield"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Global Tensions, Steady Growth: What\u2019s the Disconnect?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Trade wars and tariffs usually scare businesses into pulling back. They delay investments, cut hiring, and often scale down expansion. That\u2019s the usual pattern. But this time around? Things are playing out differently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global trade policy uncertainty remains high, especially in light of potential new U.S. tariffs. But despite this, economic momentum hasn’t dipped much. According to market analyst Briggs, this is largely due to easier financial conditions\u2014think low interest rates and accommodating central banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cCompanies might see little need to alter their behavior when the market is telling them that the outlook is okay,\u201d Briggs says.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In specific pockets\u2014like the construction of new factories in emerging markets\u2014there\u2019s been some hesitation. But overall, businesses seem unfazed by the noise. Briggs expects the real drag on growth to come from the actual impact of tariffs later in the year, not from the threat of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

U.S. Outlook: Housing Slump and a Silent Fed<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Next week is relatively quiet on the U.S. economic front as the Federal Reserve enters its pre-meeting blackout period. No official commentary will be made ahead of the July 30 FOMC meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key Events to Watch:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Thursday \u2013 New and Existing Home Sales (June)<\/strong>
    Mortgage rates are creeping up again, straining affordability and weakening demand. The National Association of Home Builders reported this week that buyer interest is at historic lows\u2014only the 2008 crisis and COVID lockdowns had worse traffic.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Friday \u2013 Durable Goods Orders (June)<\/strong>
    Expect a significant drop due to wild fluctuations in Boeing aircraft orders. However, if we strip out defense and aircraft, the core data still shows a sluggish business investment trend.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n

    Eurozone: ECB Likely to Sit Tight<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The European Central Bank will hold its latest policy meeting on Thursday<\/strong>. Though pressure is building\u2014especially with looming U.S. tariffs\u2014the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Why? Two reasons:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. No escalation yet<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 The next round of tariffs isn\u2019t expected until August 1. The ECB typically reacts to policies once they are enacted, not preemptively.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Euro strength is moderate<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 The currency has strengthened slightly since the last meeting, but not enough to warrant action.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Even with growing risks to European growth, most ECB policymakers appear set on a wait-and-see strategy, likely debating a cut in September instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Euro-Yield Ratio<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      To better understand the eurozone’s current monetary landscape, we can look at a ratio chart comparing the EUR\/USD exchange rate to the Eurozone 10-year government bond yield (EU10Y). This Euro-Yield Ratio<\/strong> provides a deeper macro view by showing how the euro\u2019s value is performing relative to domestic interest rates. When yields rise, the euro typically strengthens\u2014since higher returns attract capital. However, this chart shows the ratio is dropping steadily<\/strong>, meaning the euro is underperforming relative to bond yields<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      From an educational standpoint, this divergence is important. It tells us that despite firm or even rising yields\u2014normally a bullish signal for a currency\u2014the euro is losing ground. That suggests investors may lack confidence in the eurozone\u2019s growth outlook or are prioritising safer havens like the U.S. dollar. It aligns with the view expressed earlier in this article:\u00a0the ECB is likely to remain cautious, not because rates are too high, but because the underlying economic sentiment is fragile<\/strong>. This chart adds nuance to the policy outlook\u2014it\u2019s not just about where yields are, but whether those yields are translating into investor confidence. Right now, the answer appears to be: not quite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n

      Market Highlights: What to Watch (July 21\u201325)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      Date<\/strong><\/th>Region<\/strong><\/th>Event<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
      Mon July 21<\/td>U.S.<\/td>Leading Indicators (Jun)<\/td><\/tr>
      Tue July 22<\/td>U.S.<\/td>Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)<\/td><\/tr>
      Wed July 23<\/td>U.S.<\/td>Existing Home Sales (Jun); Japan: Machine Tool Orders<\/td><\/tr>
      Thu July 24<\/td>U.S.\/Eurozone\/Canada<\/td>U.S.: New Home Sales; Eurozone: ECB Meeting; Canada: Retail Sales<\/td><\/tr>
      Fri July 25<\/td>U.S.\/Japan\/UK<\/td>Durable Goods Orders (Jun); Japan: Indicators; UK: Retail Sales<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
      \n\n\n\n

      The Fed\u2019s Dilemma: Waller Pushes for a Cut<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      While the Fed remains in its quiet period, the policy debate is intensifying behind closed doors. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has voiced support for a 25-basis-point rate cut<\/strong> at this month\u2019s meeting, citing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • Slowing job market momentum<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Downside risks to growth<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Confidence that tariff-related inflation is temporary<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        Yet, many of his colleagues seem more cautious. With inflation still above target and the economy proving resilient, they prefer to wait for more data before making a move.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Despite elevated trade policy uncertainty, global economic activity has remained resilient. Here’s why markets are holding up and what to expect from next week\u2019s data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":162,"featured_media":14044,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[14],"class_list":["post-14037","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-weekly-outlook"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHousing Slump and a Silent Fed - Closer Look At the Euro-Yield - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Despite elevated trade policy uncertainty, global economic activity has remained resilient. Here's why markets are holding up and what to expect from next week\u2019s data.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Housing Slump and a Silent Fed - Closer Look At the Euro-Yield - Alchemy Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Despite elevated trade policy uncertainty, global economic activity has remained resilient. Here's why markets are holding up and what to expect from next week\u2019s data.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Alchemy Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-18T22:18:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/aed346ba-e469-4efd-95fb-da869b506812-1024x683.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Tempo di lettura stimato\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"4 minuti\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Housing Slump and a Silent Fed - Closer Look At the Euro-Yield - Alchemy Markets","description":"Despite elevated trade policy uncertainty, global economic activity has remained resilient. Here's why markets are holding up and what to expect from next week\u2019s data.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/","og_locale":"it_IT","og_type":"article","og_title":"Housing Slump and a Silent Fed - Closer Look At the Euro-Yield - Alchemy Markets","og_description":"Despite elevated trade policy uncertainty, global economic activity has remained resilient. Here's why markets are holding up and what to expect from next week\u2019s data.","og_url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/","og_site_name":"Alchemy Markets","article_modified_time":"2025-07-18T22:18:32+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":683,"url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/aed346ba-e469-4efd-95fb-da869b506812-1024x683.png","type":"image\/png"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Tempo di lettura stimato":"4 minuti"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/","url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/","name":"Housing Slump and a Silent Fed - Closer Look At the Euro-Yield - Alchemy Markets","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/aed346ba-e469-4efd-95fb-da869b506812.png","datePublished":"2025-07-18T22:14:24+00:00","dateModified":"2025-07-18T22:18:32+00:00","description":"Despite elevated trade policy uncertainty, global economic activity has remained resilient. Here's why markets are holding up and what to expect from next week\u2019s data.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"it-IT","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"it-IT","@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/aed346ba-e469-4efd-95fb-da869b506812.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/aed346ba-e469-4efd-95fb-da869b506812.png","width":1536,"height":1024},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/housing-slump-and-a-silent-fed\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Market Insights","item":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Housing Slump and a Silent Fed – Closer Look At the Euro-Yield"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/","name":"Alchemy Markets","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"it-IT"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_insights\/14037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_insights"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/market_insights"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/162"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14037"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14044"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"market_insights_categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_insights_categories?post=14037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}