{"id":13488,"date":"2025-06-23T17:14:15","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T17:14:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=13488"},"modified":"2025-06-23T17:14:17","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T17:14:17","slug":"gbp-usd-medium-term-top","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/gbp-usd-medium-term-top\/","title":{"rendered":"GBP\/USD Elliott Wave: Medium Term Top"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Executive Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>GBPUSD completed wave ((i)) of a larger bullish impulse sequence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Current decline is viewed as wave ((ii)) and may reach 1.31 and possibly 1.27.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Current forecast for additional declines holds while prices remain below 1.3632.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Cable\u2019s decline from the June 12 high has come to an abrupt halt. The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict caused many market participants to fear a flight towards safety on this week\u2019s trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>GBP\/USD did gap down on the Asian opening this week and prices have rallied to meet the underside of the diagonal trendline. I suspect this trend line may hold down prices and another leg downtrend may push towards 1.3139.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">GBPUSD Elliott Wave Count<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"746\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/GBPUSD_2025-06-23_12-04-17-1024x746.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13489\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/GBPUSD_2025-06-23_12-04-17-1024x746.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/GBPUSD_2025-06-23_12-04-17-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/GBPUSD_2025-06-23_12-04-17-768x559.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/GBPUSD_2025-06-23_12-04-17.png 1173w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The current <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/elliott-wave-theory\/\">Elliott wave count<\/a> is that GBPUSD is declining in wave (a) of a larger (a)-(b)-(c) correction. This downtrend is anticipated to reach 1.3139 and possibly as low as 1.27.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This downward correction would consolidate the rally from January to June 2025. The rally needed 5 months to unfold, so this decline may need 2-8 months to consolidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a rally impulse pattern that completed at the June 12 high. Wave (v) of the impulse was an ending diagonal pattern, shaped like a <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/rising-wedge-pattern\/\">rising wedge<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When an ending diagonal pattern appears, oftentimes there is a quick retracement back to the origination of the diagonal. In this case, the forecast is for a swift retracement back to 1.3139 and possibly lower levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If lower levels are sought after, there is a <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/support-and-resistance\/\">support trend line<\/a> developed from 2014 that passes through near 1.27. Also, in the same area is the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\/\">61.8% Fibonacci retracemen<\/a>t level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>GBPUSD has progressed through the first wave of a larger degree wave 3. The inability to break above 1.3631 opens the door for the bearish count and lower levels down to 1.27-1.31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This decline is viewed as a larger degree wave ((ii)). Once lower price levels are established, then the prospects for a large and booming rally likely increase later on in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>You might also be interested in:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"E7Ci8GV42w\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/usd-cad-relief-rally-underway\/\">USD\/CAD Elliott Wave: Relief Rally Underway<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;USD\/CAD Elliott Wave: Relief Rally Underway&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/usd-cad-relief-rally-underway\/embed\/#?secret=hmmXnebLyD#?secret=E7Ci8GV42w\" data-secret=\"E7Ci8GV42w\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The GBPU\/USD Elliott wave count suggests a medium term top is in place. A decline to 1.27-1.31 is considered normal. Key levels inside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":13491,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[16],"class_list":["post-13488","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-elliott-wave"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>GBP\/USD Elliott Wave: Medium Term Top - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The GBPU\/USD Elliott wave count suggests a medium term top is in place. A decline to 1.27-1.31 is considered normal. 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