{"id":13441,"date":"2025-06-16T12:39:03","date_gmt":"2025-06-16T12:39:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=13441"},"modified":"2025-06-16T12:44:13","modified_gmt":"2025-06-16T12:44:13","slug":"oil-trading-june-2025","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/oil-trading-june-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Surge Over For Now? Oil Find Resistance at Descending Trendline"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Crude oil\u2019s rally may have hit a ceiling \u2014 at least for now. After surging past $77, USOIL tagged a long-term descending trendline, printed a sharp rejection candle, and showed hidden bearish divergence on the RSI. Technically, this signals a potential pullback, especially with price stalling at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a prior swing high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This reaction suggests that much of the geopolitical risk \u2014 particularly around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 may already be priced in. However, with Middle East tensions still simmering, traders should be prepared for an alternative scenario: any fresh escalation could quickly flip this setup back into a bullish continuation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.16.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13442\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.16.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.16-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.16-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/COTD-25.06.16-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\ud83d\udd0d Base Case: Technical Rejection in Play<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/hidden-bearish-divergence\/\"><strong>Hidden Bearish Divergence<\/strong><\/a>: While price made a lower high, RSI formed a higher high \u2014 a classic setup suggesting weakening momentum.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trendline Resistance<\/strong>: The descending resistance from the 2022 high capped this move cleanly, reinforcing the downtrend\u2019s grip.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If bears remain in control, downside targets include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>$73.80 (structure support)<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>$66.36 (50% retracement)<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>$63.71 (Golden Pocket)<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u26a0\ufe0f Alternative Scenario: Geopolitics Take the Wheel<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the rejection, oil markets remain fragile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The Strait of Hormuz is reportedly closed off<\/strong>, cutting off a crucial artery for 20%+ of the world\u2019s crude flows. If confirmed, this could add severe supply-side pressure.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Iran\u2013Israel tensions remain unresolved. Any attack on energy infrastructure or tanker routes could <strong>trigger another leg higher, <\/strong>especially with inventories tight and OPEC+ supply cuts still in play.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Should this narrative take over, bulls could retarget:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>$80.00 (closest previous high)<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>$84.00 &#8211; $86.00 (previous highs)<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>$94.99 (2023 high)<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\ud83e\udded Final Word<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Technicals suggest the <strong>surge may be over<\/strong>, at least short-term. But with geopolitics in flux and the Strait of Hormuz at risk, this market remains highly reactive. Traders should stay nimble \u2014 price may be rejecting now, but any flare-up could send oil soaring again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You may also be interested:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"v6R8cBaBzy\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/central-banks-eye-rate-cuts-as-usd-cad-nears-multi-year-trendline-breakout\/\">Central Banks Eye Rate Cuts as USD\/CAD Nears Multi-Year Trendline Breakout<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Central Banks Eye Rate Cuts as USD\/CAD Nears Multi-Year Trendline Breakout&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/central-banks-eye-rate-cuts-as-usd-cad-nears-multi-year-trendline-breakout\/embed\/#?secret=P1icKLfb6D#?secret=v6R8cBaBzy\" data-secret=\"v6R8cBaBzy\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil rejects key trendline near $80.56 with bearish divergence, but Strait of Hormuz closure could trigger breakout if tensions escalate further.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":13444,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-13441","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Surge Over For Now? 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