{"id":12390,"date":"2025-04-11T20:28:01","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T20:28:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.wpengine.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=9946"},"modified":"2025-05-16T07:07:46","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T07:07:46","slug":"eur-usd-nearing-end-of-first-subwave","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/it\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/eur-usd-nearing-end-of-first-subwave\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD Elliott Wave: Nearing End of First &#8220;Five&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Executive Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The recent surge in EUR\/USD was the latter stages of a first of a third wave advance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The trend remains up with a pull back offering a value trade.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A decline to 1.07-1.11 would be considered normal, but not required.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Current Elliott Wave Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/EURUSD_2025-04-11_14-49-40-1024x771.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9947\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Volatility wasn&#8217;t just for the equity markets. EUR\/USD has been in a strong trend higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/elliott-wave-theory\/\">Elliott wave analysis <\/a>suggests EUR\/USD is in the latter stages of Minor Wave 1 of a larger third wave advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For those unfamiliar with Elliott wave, a third wave must subdivide as an impulse wave, in five subwaves. It appears EUR\/USD is about to complete the first of those five subwaves. When this first subwave completes, then the biggest decline since January may appear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The wave harmony has been in check during this rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are counting wave ((iii)) complete with nearly a <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-extensions\/\">2.618 Fibonacci Extension<\/a> of wave ((i))..this is a common wave relationship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, wave ((v)) would be 1.618 the length of wave ((i)) near 1.1515, another common extension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is possible that EUR\/USD needs one more push to finalize wave ((v)) and wave 1. Therefore, a rally to 1.1515 would be considered normal, but may also signal a near-term top is looming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Once the top in wave 1 is in place, then a decline down to 1.07-1.11 would be considered normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">General Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve been anticipating a strong and powerful rally from the lows. Our most recent writing <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/eur-usd-eyes-the-prize\/\"><em>\u201cEURUSD Eyes the Prize\u201d<\/em><\/a> anticipated a wave ((iii)) topping near 1.12. That top appeared on April 3 at 1.1145.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Zooming out, EURUSD is breaking long-term downtrend channels and resistance levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/EURUSD_2025-04-11_14-55-14-1024x771.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9949\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s a Weekly price chart going back to 2008. There is a 17-year downward sloping <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/guides\/support-and-resistance\/\">price channel resistance<\/a> that was broken this week. This is another major clue that the mood of the market is shifting from cyclical dollar strength to dollar weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The first wave of a five-wave advance is nearing its end. EUR\/USD might rally a little higher to 1.1515. However, once this rally tops, then a minor wave \u20182\u2019 decline back to 1.07-1.11 would be considered a normal pullback within a much larger uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Once wave 2 exhausts to the downside, the next wave 3 advance could carry up to 1.28-1.29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>You Might Be Interested In:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"p40lSJOunY\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.wpengine.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/gbp-usd-3rd-wave-continues\/\">GBP\/USD Elliott Wave: 3rd Wave Continues<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;GBP\/USD Elliott Wave: 3rd Wave Continues&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.wpengine.com\/education\/market-insights\/elliott-wave\/gbp-usd-3rd-wave-continues\/embed\/#?secret=Rz8YNafzVZ#?secret=p40lSJOunY\" data-secret=\"p40lSJOunY\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EURUSD Elliott Wave analysis suggests the first of five waves may top soon leading to a pullback. Price may rally to 1.1515 but the largest pullback since January is looming.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":160,"featured_media":12535,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[16],"class_list":["post-12390","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-elliott-wave"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>EUR\/USD Elliott Wave: Nearing End of First &quot;Five&quot; - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"EURUSD Elliott Wave analysis suggests the first of five waves may top soon leading to a pullback. 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