{"id":7637,"date":"2025-01-09T14:01:09","date_gmt":"2025-01-09T14:01:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=7637"},"modified":"2025-05-12T12:31:33","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T12:31:33","slug":"aud-jpy-expecting-a-wave-3","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/aud-jpy-expecting-a-wave-3\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/JPY Technical Analysis: Expecting a Bearish Wave 3 Move"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The AUD\/JPY pair currently exhibits a bearish outlook as it remains in a corrective phase within an ascending channel. As seen on the chart, the analysis points toward a potential Wave (3) move to the downside<\/strong>, aligned with Elliott Wave theory<\/a>. The bearish flag<\/a> still contains the price action, but early indications suggest a promising bearish setup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chart Overview<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. Structure and Wave Count:<\/strong>\n
      \n
    • The chart displays a three-wave correction labelled W-X-Y<\/strong>, following a larger Wave 1<\/strong> decline.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • After completing the corrective Wave Y<\/strong>, the pair has initiated a decline, which appears to form the beginning stages of Wave (3)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Key Observations:<\/strong>\n
        \n
      • The bearish Wave ((iii)) target aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Sub-waves of Wave (3) ((i, ii, iii, iv, v)) are visible, with Wave ((i)) already complete and Wave ((ii)) appearing as a corrective pullback.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Invalidation Level:<\/strong>\n
          \n
        • The invalidity threshold<\/strong> for the bearish bias is set at 98.663<\/strong>. If the price breaks above this level, the Wave (3) scenario will be negated, indicating a potential continuation of bullish corrective action instead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Price Action Dynamics:<\/strong>\n
            \n
          • Current price: 97.227<\/strong> (as of the chart).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • The downward momentum aligns with expectations for a sharp decline in Wave ((iii))<\/strong> of the larger Wave (3), which typically exhibits the strongest price movement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            Key Levels to Watch<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
              \n
            • Support Levels:<\/strong>\n
                \n
              • 96.500:<\/strong> Anticipated near-term target for Wave iii.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • 95.000\u201394.500:<\/strong> Lower support zone, corresponding to the channel boundary and Wave v completion.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • Resistance Levels:<\/strong>\n
                  \n
                • 98.663 (Invalidation Level):<\/strong> Break above this level invalidates the bearish structure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                • 99.000:<\/strong> Psychological barrier, marking a critical resistance level.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
                  \n\n\n\n

                  Bullet Point Summary<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
                    \n
                  • The AUD\/JPY pair is poised for a Wave (3) bearish move<\/strong>, with downside targets near 96.500<\/strong> and below.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  • The current price remains within the bearish flag<\/strong>, which may act as support during the move.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  • Invalidation Level:<\/strong> A break above 98.663<\/strong> nullifies the bearish scenario and points to further corrective upside.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  • Wave Count:<\/strong> Wave ((i)) is complete, and Wave ((ii)) is likely wrapping up, setting the stage for a strong Wave iii drop.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  • Targets align with the lower boundary of the channel, extending below 95.000<\/strong> in subsequent sub-waves.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  • Monitor key resistance and support levels for confirmation of the bearish trend.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                    Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

                    This analysis points toward a bearish continuation in AUD\/JPY, with the completion of Wave (3) expected to bring significant downside movement. Traders should watch the 98.663 invalidation level<\/strong> closely and look for confirmation signals as the pair progresses through the sub-waves of Wave (3). As always, prudent risk management is key when trading volatile moves like this.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                    AUD\/JPY is set for a Wave 3 bearish move, targeting the downside within an ascending channel, with invalidation above 98.663.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":162,"featured_media":7640,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-7637","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAUD\/JPY Technical Analysis: Expecting a Bearish Wave 3 Move - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover the bearish outlook for AUD\/JPY as Wave 3 unfolds, targeting lower levels within an ascending channel. 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