{"id":33214,"date":"2026-09-11T11:55:49","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T11:55:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=33214"},"modified":"2026-09-11T11:58:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T11:58:22","slug":"august-cpi-2026","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/august-cpi-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"PPI Matched Forecasts. CPI Will Decide the Next Move"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

August PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month<\/strong>, right in line with expectations. On the surface, that sounds fairly harmless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So was it a relief?<\/strong> Not really.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you look at the fine print, final-demand goods rose 1.1%, energy jumped 4.2%<\/strong>, while transportation and warehousing services rose 2.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are exactly the kinds of costs that can eventually work their way into consumer prices through fuel, freight and distribution costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets did not exactly treat PPI as an all-clear either. The S&P 500 fell 0.76%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.14%, while the Dow slipped 0.93%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what should we expect from CPI?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energy\u2019s 4.2% jump gives us a reason to lean slightly higher on headline CPI inflation, which is currently expected to come in at 0.4% month-on-month<\/strong> and 3.4% year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Core CPI is a little less obvious. Expectations are for 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, our base case is still close to that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nick Timiraos from The Wall Street Journal <\/em>points out the median core CPI estimate from various American financial institutions is actually 0.22%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All 17 forecasts range from 0.16% to 0.24%, yet every one of them still rounds to 0.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So if core CPI lands at 0.2%, it is worth looking one layer deeper. A reading near 0.24% is a different inflation signal from 0.16%, even if both show up as the same number on the calendar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also notes that the PPI components feeding into core PCE were firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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August core CPI estimates from those who have shared them: The median is 0.22%.

All 17 estimates (ranging from 0.16% to 0.24%) round to 0.2%.

August PPI components that feed into the PCE were firm, so a consensus CPI might lead to a slightly higher August core PCE.

Fed-funds\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/WDG1hRN5jF<\/a><\/p>— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 10, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote>