{"id":26160,"date":"2026-05-04T07:59:55","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T07:59:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=26160"},"modified":"2026-05-04T08:03:46","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T08:03:46","slug":"bitcoin-may-2026","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/bitcoin-may-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Caution for Bitcoin Holders: $80K Resistance and a Bear Flag Pattern"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After breaking ~$75,000, Bitcoin has made significant progress towards $80,635.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that still does not invalidate the fact that the bedrock of crypto has been in a downtrend since November last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several technical factors now line up to present an imminent decline on Bitcoin:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2460 A rising channel starting from February 2026, which is possibly a bear flag pattern<\/a>

\u2461 Decreasing volume, which supports the thesis of a pattern formation

\u2462 A test of the 200 EMA band (0.25 sd)<\/a> which has suppressed Bitcoin since November 2025

\u2463 A test of $80,537 \u2014 the weekly low of Bitcoin \u2014 since November 2025<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Note, this is not a trade setup, but rather a technical bias we\u2019re presenting here; simply by way of multiple bearish confluences lining up. Personally, I expect Bitcoin to, sooner rather than later, begin its final leg lower before a true bottom is formed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daily Chart Analysis (Bitcoin, May 4th, 2026)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Every retest of the 200 EMA band (0.25 sd) has resulted in a rejection since the Death Cross<\/a> back in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And with volume steadily decreasing, that adds to the idea that a potentially strong <\/em>bearish swing is just around the corner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, there\u2019s an argument to be made that Bitcoin is currently forming its 4th leg within a Elliott Wave 5-wave pattern, <\/strong>as the 4th leg typically takes the longest to form \/ consolidate. And that aligns with what we\u2019re seeing on the charts, for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For full confirmation, the rising channel\u2019s low at around $70,000 would have to be broken; but aggressive traders may use this 200 EMA band (0.25 sd) as a reference to consider swing-short setup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weekly Chart Analysis (Bitcoin, May 4th, 2026)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is clearly running into a resistance zone marked by its weekly low from ~$75K to ~85.7K. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coincidentally, the midline and edges of this zone aligns almost perfectly with:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2460 The exact November 2025 lows at $80,537 – aligns with midline or Consequent Encroachment zone (50%)

\u2461 The weekly 50-EMA<\/a> which has provided accurate pivot points, now at $85,748
<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These confluences align with our bearish view on the daily timeframe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On-Chain Analytics Suggest a Bitcoin Low Isn\u2019t In (Yet)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even by on-chain analytics, Bitcoin\u2019s NUPL (Net Unrealised Profit-Loss) chart is indicating that a bottom isn\u2019t in. <\/strong>According to this chart, Bitcoin must reach its capitulation zone, <\/strong>where most Bitcoin holders are in losses rather than in profit, before a bottom is found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If you are considering a short position on Bitcoin, note that this analysis is based on higher timeframes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, it\u2019s specific, but not precise. That means even though Bitcoin has already tested a key resistance at $80,537, there is still a chance it can push higher into $85K. Especially if this Tuesday\u2019s AI earnings from AMD, Navitas, and Super Micro pulls through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In that scenario, peak euphoria could kick in and produce an even more devastating collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, that is only if Bitcoin doesn\u2019t just shoot past its weekly 50 EMA and successfully bounce off it on a retest. But we\u2019ll cross that bridge once we get there.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin nears $80K resistance as a bear flag, falling volume and EMA pressure warn the crypto bottom may not be in yet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":26173,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-26160","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCaution for Bitcoin Holders: $80K Resistance and a Bear Flag Pattern - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin nears $80K resistance as a bear flag, falling volume and EMA pressure warn the crypto bottom may not be in yet.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/bitcoin-may-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Caution for Bitcoin Holders: $80K Resistance and a Bear Flag Pattern - 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