{"id":16896,"date":"2025-11-24T06:58:36","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T06:58:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=16896"},"modified":"2025-11-24T06:58:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T06:58:38","slug":"bitcoin-november-2025","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/bitcoin-november-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Bears on Parade: BTC Still Bearish, Short Term Bounce Possible"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Bitcoin is getting a short-term boost as markets price in a <strong>December Fed cut,<\/strong> with expectations now near <strong>67.1 percent for a 25 bps move<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Adding to the mix, President Trump has also floated a <strong>2,000 dollar stimulus check<\/strong> for all U.S. citizens, but prediction markets on Polymarket assign only a 7 percent chance of it actually happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1420\" height=\"649\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-85.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16909\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-85.png 1420w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-85-300x137.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-85-1024x468.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-85-768x351.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1420px) 100vw, 1420px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Fedwatch Tool Data as of Nov 24th, 2025<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Liquidity is improving, yes \u2014 yet the chart still leans bearish. Bitcoin\u2019s current reprieve is shaping up as a potential relief rally within a larger correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>BTC Technical Analysis \u2014 November 24th, 2025<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1605\" height=\"892\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-82.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16897\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-82.png 1605w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-82-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-82-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-82-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-82-1536x854.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1605px) 100vw, 1605px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>BTC lost two major supports:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/exponential-moving-average\/\"><strong>50-week EMA<\/strong><\/a>, which has been a historical support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The <strong>rising trendline<\/strong> that guided the entire move from 2024.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Breaking both puts price in a structural retracement phase. Even with the current bounce, BTC remains below the key reclaim zones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1605\" height=\"892\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-83.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16901\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-83.png 1605w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-83-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-83-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-83-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-83-1536x854.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1605px) 100vw, 1605px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart shows a clear two-stage roadmap:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Short-term upside<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Macro optimism can fuel a retest of broken structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Immediate resistance is the <strong>38.2 Fib at 90,822<\/strong> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\/\"><strong>50 Fib<\/strong><\/a><strong> at 94,003<\/strong>, sitting inside the <strong>$92,900 to $95,200<\/strong> high volume zone (shown by the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/volume-profile\">volume profile<\/a> anchored to April\u2019s rally).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Higher resistance<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>If BTC breaks above that, the final decision point sits at <strong>$101,000<\/strong>. This level aligns with:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <strong>Value Area Low<\/strong> of the entire rally<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The <strong>0.786 Fib at 101,713<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Multiple critical lows in prior structure<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This is the zone where bulls either reclaim control or the bearish structure snaps back and sends price lower. Alternatively, the 0.618 Fib is also a legitimate rejection zone on its own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Weekly 50 EMA is now curling downward and could very easily meet the 0.618 level, creating a trendline + EMA + Fib confluence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If that alignment happens, BTC may struggle to break through long before it reaches $101k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Downside map<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The swing low at <strong>$80,524<\/strong>, remains a valid target for a second sweep. However, the larger target would be the psychological low at $75,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>DXY Technical Analysis \u2014 November 24th, 2025<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1605\" height=\"892\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-81.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16898\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-81.png 1605w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-81-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-81-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-81-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-81-1536x854.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1605px) 100vw, 1605px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>While BTC\u2019s chart leans bearish on its own, the macro layer isn\u2019t offering relief either. The Dollar Index (DXY) has been building a clear accumulation range beneath 100 to 96.6 (approximately), and this structure matters for crypto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>DXY\u2019s current setup looks like a horizontal base that could extend higher if catalysts line up. The range remains a range until broken, but the behaviour underneath resistance tells its own story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two things stand out:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1. Yen carry unwind risk<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any further unwinding of the USDJPY carry trade can tighten global liquidity and push DXY higher by extension. A stronger dollar typically pressures risk assets such as Crypto and Stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2. Weekly 50 EMA overhead<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dollar Index sits right below its Weekly 50 EMA. If DXY breaks above 100 and accelerates into the 102\u2013104 region, it becomes a direct headwind for BTC\u2019s attempt to reclaim broken structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In short: DXY isn\u2019t confirmed bullish, but its positioning is not supportive for a sustained BTC recovery. A breakout above 100 and the weekly 50 EMA would add another macro layer of resistance against any upside attempt in Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Quick recap: <\/strong>This analyst believes that Bitcoin is currently macro-bearish, and rallies are for selling until $101,000 is decisively broken and held.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BTC gets a macro-driven lift from rising Fed-cut bets, but the broken weekly structure still signals deeper downside once the relief rally fades.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":16906,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-16896","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - 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