{"id":16417,"date":"2025-10-31T10:45:33","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T10:45:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=16417"},"modified":"2025-10-31T10:46:41","modified_gmt":"2025-10-31T10:46:41","slug":"hawkish-fomc-guidance","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/hawkish-fomc-guidance\/","title":{"rendered":"Hawkish FOMC Guidance &amp; Raised CapEx Forecasts Spooks Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>And there it is. The FOMC happened, and we got our rate cut of 25bps (Current rate 375-400 bps).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Normally, this should be bullish for equities and gold alike, bearish for the dollar. But bear in mind, this was a significant earnings week as well, and these reports included subjects like CapEx (Capital Expense \u2014 Business development costs) which were, to say the least, unfavourable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On top of that, Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself hinted at a hawkish tone for the upcoming December rate cut decision \u2014 likely holding before quantitative easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are forward looking, and we effectively got hit with five negative forecasts this week, if you include the earnings guidance on CapEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For those of you wondering why the markets are falling, this is why. Now the bigger question is, what other impacts should you be aware of? And what comes next?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>December Rate Cut Projection Demolished Overnight: 90% to 66%&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1406\" height=\"651\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-114.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16418\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-114.png 1406w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-114-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-114-1024x474.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-114-768x356.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1406px) 100vw, 1406px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The next Fed meeting was supposed to be a dovish one; with rate cuts towards 350-375 coming in hot at an expectation of 90% just before the Oct Fed Meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, expectations changed overnight after Powell\u2019s speech, dropping to a devastating 66%, and removing all expectations of a bigger cut to 325-350 bps. <strong>Now, it sits at an expectation of 71% (as of October 31, 2025). This strengthens the dollar in the short term.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>DXY (Dollar Index) \u2014 Watching 100<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1567\" height=\"897\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-119.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16431\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-119.png 1567w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-119-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-119-1024x586.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-119-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-119-1536x879.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1567px) 100vw, 1567px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>DXY has cleared its 100 EMA and is now testing the <strong>psychological 100 level<\/strong>, not yet through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>As annotated: &#8222;Once DXY cracks above, further retests become support.&#8220;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Right now, price is pressing that threshold but hasn\u2019t confirmed a breakout.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>As seen in the charts above, DXY and USDJPY are gaining strength, while EURUSD is rolling over \u2014 this clearly reflects recent dollar strength as rate differentials shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ECB also struck a cautious tone in its latest statement, reinforcing divergence from the Fed\u2019s more hawkish-than-expected tone, and adding fuel to dollar strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If DXY closes firmly above 100, it will confirm a macro trend shift. That would suppress all risk assets: equities, crypto, even gold. For now, the test is in progress. Watch for rejection vs breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>SPX \/ NDX (Mega Cap Tech Pressure)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Tech remains top-heavy, and this week\u2019s earnings cycle made that fragility clear. Despite headline beats, CapEx surprised to the upside \u2014 META, for example, raised its full-year spending outlook by $2B. That added pressure to a market already bracing for tighter liquidity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A quick note on chart structure: all equity charts in this brief use <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/bollinger-bands\/\">Bollinger Bands\u00ae<\/a> set to follow the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/exponential-moving-average\/\">Exponential Moving Average (EMA)<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Blue bands represent the 100 EMA, green bands the 50 EMA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They\u2019re tuned to 1 standard deviation to highlight directional trends and detect overextension.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Technically, each of the MAG7 names that reported this week sits near critical levels \u2014 especially when viewed on monthly timeframes. The danger zones are clearly defined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>MSFT Daily Chart \/ Monthly Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>MSFT confirmed quarterly CapEx hit $11.2B (up ~70% YoY), guiding toward elevated AI infrastructure spend into 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"889\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-117.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16427\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-117.png 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-117-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-117-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-117-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-117-1536x853.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bearish monthly candle \u2014 closing back in range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Descending volume over the course of 4 years confirms a pattern consolidation (<a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/rising-wedge-pattern\/\">Rising Wedge<\/a>).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price at critical support: 50 EMA \/ Band Low.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>META Daily Chart \/ Monthly Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>META announced 2025 total expenses of $96\u201399B (up from $94\u201399B prior), with $5\u20136B allocated to Reality Labs and increased AI CapEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"889\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-115.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16421\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-115.png 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-115-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-115-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-115-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-115-1536x853.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Price is tapping into the ascending channel\u2019s support on the monthly timeframe.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price will likely be suppressed by 50 EMA bands on the daily timeframe.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price found support at the VAL of the entire rally, which needs to hold for the rally to be sustained.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A downtrend is now official on the daily timeframe, however.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>GOOG Daily Chart \/ Monthly Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>GOOG posted $11.2B CapEx for the quarter, its highest ever, reaffirming full-year spend &gt;$47B \u2014 majority allocated to AI compute buildout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"889\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-116.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-116.png 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-116-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-116-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-116-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-116-1536x853.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Strong earnings and guidance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Volume spike invalidates the rising wedge formation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Monthly FVG created, aligns with trendline top.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>$208 key support aligns with rally VAH.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>AAPL Daily Chart \/ Monthly Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>AAPL reported $28.1B in annual CapEx, with guidance implying flat-to-modest growth, focused on silicon and Vision Pro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"889\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-120.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16437\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-120.png 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-120-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-120-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-120-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-120-1536x853.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Approaching multiyear pattern top.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Still supported by 50 EMA Band on the daily timeframe.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Volume declining \u2014 be cautious near $280.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>AMZN Daily Chart \/ Monthly Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>AMZN guided 2025 CapEx to exceed $125B (vs ~$59B in 2023), with AWS data centers and AI silicon as key drivers; 2026 flagged for further increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"889\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-121.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16436\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-121.png 1600w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-121-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-121-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-121-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-121-1536x853.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Value area (VAH, VAL, POC) acting as support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Monthly chart shows fib resistance at $257.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Volume trendline still descending \u2014 pattern is forming.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Implication:<\/strong> All these names are deeply embedded in SPX and NDX weights. If tech slips again, SPX breadth will collapse with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>10Y Yield (UST10Y)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Back above 4.00%. That\u2019s the pressure point for all long-duration assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tech multiples contract.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Growth stocks lose steam.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Credit spreads haven\u2019t blown out yet \u2014 but watch for cracks if this continues.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What to Watch Next:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>December FOMC (Rate cut probability dropped from 90% \u2192 66%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>DXY: If it holds &gt;100, liquidity conditions tighten into year-end.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>META: If price closes below $652, structure breaks further.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>SPX: If mega-cap leadership fails, breadth unwinds fast.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>MSFT: Watch $506\u2013$516. If it breaks, risk opens toward $497\u2013$475.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>AAPL: $276\u2013$280 near-term resistance. If rejected, watch band low near $248.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>\u2705 Rate cut is a go.<br>\u2705 CapEx: Heavy forward guidance from major tech (META, AMZN) triggered repricing; spending optimism is now a risk factor.<br>\u2705 Market reaction is bearish, due to forward guidance and CapEx.Dollar testing 100, yields up, gold flat, tech softening, crypto capped.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Stay nimble. This isn\u2019t the rally continuation many expected. We\u2019re still very much in a trend-sensitive macro tape. Major players are pressing pause. Be alert for whiplash or follow-through \u2014 either can happen from here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rate cut optimism fades as Powell strikes a hawkish tone. Mega-cap tech raises CapEx, spooking markets as yields climb and the dollar tests 100.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":16430,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-16417","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hawkish FOMC Guidance &amp; Raised CapEx Forecasts Spooks Markets - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Rate cut optimism fades as Powell strikes a hawkish tone. 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