{"id":15823,"date":"2025-10-03T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=15823"},"modified":"2025-10-03T15:17:35","modified_gmt":"2025-10-03T15:17:35","slug":"spx-riding-high-but-cracks-are-showing","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/spx-riding-high-but-cracks-are-showing\/","title":{"rendered":"SPX Riding High, But Cracks Are Showing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Government Shutdown \u2013 Why It Matters<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. government shutdown stopped the jobs report this week. It\u2019s a political fight over spending, but the market cares because the data blackout means less visibility. No payrolls this Friday. We wait until Washington gets moving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Next Week in Focus (date order)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tuesday \u2013 Fed Speakers & NZ Survey<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

We kick off with the NZIER business survey<\/strong> (Mon night UK time). It often sets the tone for how weak or strong New Zealand feels before the RBNZ.
In the U.S., Fed governors Jefferson, Bowman, and Miran all speak. Markets will listen for hints after soft labor data and ADP showing job losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wednesday \u2013 RBNZ Decision<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The RBNZ<\/strong> meets Wednesday. Most expect a 25bp cut<\/strong> but some are calling for 50bp<\/strong> because of poor growth. That\u2019s a big deal for NZD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thursday \u2013 More Fed Chatter<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Powell gives remarks, joined by Bowman and Barr. It\u2019s not the big FOMC yet, but this is where the tone gets set. If they sound dovish, it feeds the rate cut trade. If not, markets may wobble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Friday \u2013 Michigan Sentiment & Delayed NFP<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment<\/strong>. Last month it dropped to the mid-50s. Inflation expectations crept up. That\u2019s the real watch \u2013 do people think prices will stick higher?
And yes, the big one: Non-Farm Payrolls<\/strong>. It\u2019s delayed, no set date. Street thinks ~50k jobs added, unemployment ~4.3%. Weak, but the timing is up to Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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SPX Technical View<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The SPX (chart above) has been climbing nicely inside a channel since August. Price is hugging the upper trend line.
The moving averages<\/a> (orange lines) are still pointing higher, so trend is alive. That keeps us\u00a0mildly bullish short term<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But\u2026 there are warning signs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n