{"id":15192,"date":"2025-09-05T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=15192"},"modified":"2025-09-05T18:15:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T18:15:00","slug":"weak-jobs-data-raises-pressure-ahead-of-key-inflation-print","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/weak-jobs-data-raises-pressure-ahead-of-key-inflation-print\/","title":{"rendered":"Weak Jobs Data Raises Pressure Ahead of Key Inflation Print &#8211; SPX Falling Wedge"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Softer Non-Farm Payrolls Underscore Cooling Labour Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The August US employment report came in weaker than expected. Non-farm payrolls rose by just&nbsp;<strong>22,000<\/strong>, well short of the&nbsp;<strong>75,000<\/strong>&nbsp;consensus forecast. Even with upward revisions of&nbsp;<strong>29,000<\/strong>&nbsp;across the prior two months, the overall tone remains soft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Unemployment rate:<\/strong>\u00a0rose to\u00a0<strong>4.3%<\/strong>\u00a0(from 4.2%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Underemployment (U-6):<\/strong>\u00a0climbed to\u00a0<strong>8.1%<\/strong>\u00a0from\u00a0<strong>7.9%<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Average weekly hours:<\/strong>\u00a0slipped to\u00a0<strong>34.2<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Wage growth:<\/strong>\u00a0slowed to\u00a0<strong>3.7% YoY<\/strong>\u00a0from\u00a0<strong>3.9%<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This weakness was broad-based. Private education and health (+46k), leisure and hospitality (+28k), and retail (+11k) added jobs, but other sectors were flat or declining. Stripping out those three areas, payrolls have now fallen&nbsp;<strong>four consecutive months<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2013 a worrying sign for the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Households Brace for Job Losses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The&nbsp;<strong>University of Michigan consumer survey<\/strong>&nbsp;highlights how worried households have become. A net&nbsp;<strong>49% of Americans<\/strong>&nbsp;expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months \u2013 one of the most pessimistic readings in the past half-century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given that&nbsp;<strong>consumer spending drives 70% of US GDP<\/strong>, the combination of tariff-induced price pressures and growing job insecurity suggests downside risks for growth are mounting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This backdrop strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to act. Markets are pricing in&nbsp;<strong>25bp cuts in September, October, and December<\/strong>, followed by more in early 2026. While a&nbsp;<strong>50bp move in September<\/strong>&nbsp;is not our base case, the odds are no longer negligible, particularly if upcoming revisions to payrolls confirm weaker employment trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Next Week\u2019s Key Data: Inflation &amp; Consumer Confidence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Inflation (Thursday):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"529\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/koyfin_20250905_065924053-1024x529.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15197\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/koyfin_20250905_065924053-1024x529.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/koyfin_20250905_065924053-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/koyfin_20250905_065924053-768x397.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/koyfin_20250905_065924053-1536x794.png 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/koyfin_20250905_065924053-2048x1058.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><br>This will be the final major release before the Fed\u2019s\u00a0<strong>17 September FOMC decision<\/strong>. Expectations are for a\u00a0<strong>0.3% MoM increase<\/strong>\u00a0in both headline and core CPI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tariffs continue to push up goods prices, but goods only account for\u00a0<strong>19%<\/strong>\u00a0of the CPI basket.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing, which makes up\u00a0<strong>33%<\/strong>, is showing clear signs of softening. Zillow and Cleveland Fed data confirm rents are cooling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Energy prices are falling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wage growth, once a key driver of inflation, is now easing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Taken together, these factors mean the Fed can cut by&nbsp;<strong>25bp<\/strong>&nbsp;without fear of reigniting inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Consumer Confidence (Friday):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"529\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/koyfin_20250905_065739590-1024x529.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15195\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/koyfin_20250905_065739590-1024x529.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/koyfin_20250905_065739590-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/koyfin_20250905_065739590-768x397.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/koyfin_20250905_065739590-1536x794.png 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/koyfin_20250905_065739590-2048x1058.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><br>The\u00a0<strong>University of Michigan index<\/strong>\u00a0remains fragile, reflecting two themes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Tariff-induced price hikes<\/strong>\u00a0are squeezing household budgets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fear of joblessness<\/strong>\u00a0is climbing.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>This will be reinforced by another hefty monthly borrowing figure from Washington, as tariff revenues continue to underdeliver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical Outlook: Rising Wedge Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"714\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-9-1024x714.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15193\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-9-1024x714.png 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-9-300x209.png 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-9-768x535.png 768w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-9-1536x1071.png 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-9-2048x1427.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The&nbsp;<strong>S&amp;P 500 (SPX)<\/strong>&nbsp;daily chart shows price action constrained within a&nbsp;<strong>rising wedge pattern<\/strong>. The index is trading above its&nbsp;<strong>20-day (blue) and 50-day (black) moving averages<\/strong>, with the&nbsp;<strong>200-day (red) far below<\/strong>&nbsp;at 5,969.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If the wedge holds, the market could attempt another push higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A decisive break below both the\u00a0<strong>20-day and 50-day averages<\/strong>\u00a0would open the door to a deeper retracement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The\u00a0<strong>200-day SMA<\/strong>\u00a0remains the key downside magnet.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This wedge pattern aligns with the macro narrative: a slowing jobs market, softening demand, and uncertainty around Fed policy all increase the risk of a break lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The weak August NFP report reinforces the idea that the US labour market is losing momentum. With inflation and consumer confidence due next week, markets will be watching closely for signs that justify a September cut. A&nbsp;<strong>25bp move remains the base case<\/strong>, but the chances of a&nbsp;<strong>50bp cut<\/strong>&nbsp;have edged higher. Technically, the S&amp;P 500 is at a crossroads \u2013 a wedge breakdown would likely see investors test the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The August jobs report has landed with a thud, and markets are left questioning just how much room the Federal Reserve has to manoeuvre before next week\u2019s inflation release.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":162,"featured_media":15199,"parent":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[14],"class_list":["post-15192","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-weekly-outlook"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weak Jobs Data Raises Pressure Ahead of Key Inflation Print - SPX Falling Wedge - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The August jobs report has landed with a thud, and markets are left questioning just how much room the Federal Reserve has to manoeuvre before next week\u2019s inflation release.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/weak-jobs-data-raises-pressure-ahead-of-key-inflation-print\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Weak Jobs Data Raises Pressure Ahead of Key Inflation Print - 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