{"id":14636,"date":"2025-08-11T07:46:18","date_gmt":"2025-08-11T07:46:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=14636"},"modified":"2025-08-11T07:49:00","modified_gmt":"2025-08-11T07:49:00","slug":"mcdonalds-breakfast-sales-drop-a-sign-of-weak-consumer-spending","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/mcdonalds-breakfast-sales-drop-a-sign-of-weak-consumer-spending\/","title":{"rendered":"McDonald\u2019s Breakfast Sales Drop; A Sign of Weak Consumer Spending?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>So, I spent my weekend rewatching The Big Short \u2014 partly for the finance nostalgia, partly because it\u2019s one of the few movies that can make a mortgage-backed security sound more exciting than my Sunday laundry run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s that one scene where Mark Baum learns a pole dancer owns five houses and a condo, and suddenly realises the housing market is toast. This got me thinking. What&#8217;s the modern-day equivalent?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s the small but telling signal that says \u201cHey, something might be off here?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, it turns out, it might just be your Sausage McMuffin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1439\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.11-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14643\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.11-2.jpg 1439w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.11-2-300x123.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.11-2-1024x419.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.11-2-768x314.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1439px) 100vw, 1439px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Still from The Big Short (2015), \u00a9Paramount Pictures<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Breakfast Is Losing Its Sizzle<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>On McDonald\u2019s August 4 earnings call, CEO Chris Kempczinski casually dropped a nugget that\u2019s more telling than the share price: breakfast is the weakest part of the day for sales right now. Customers are either eating at home or skipping it entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And it\u2019s not just McD\u2019s. Wendy\u2019s says breakfast is underperforming across the industry, noting that when people tighten budgets, breakfast is the first meal to go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you connect the dots, it\u2019s not just about Egg McMuffins \u2014<strong> we\u2019re witnessing a snapshot of consumer stress.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>People aren\u2019t trading down from a Big Mac to a McChicken\u2026 they\u2019re trading out of the meal altogether.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why This Matters (Without the Doom &amp; Gloom)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Consumer budgets are pinched.<\/strong> Even with value menus, McD\u2019s US same-store sales slipped in Q1 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Alternatives are winning.<\/strong> Gas-station breakfast burritos and 7-Eleven coffee are quietly taking share.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Macro echo.<\/strong> Credit-card balances have dipped for two months straight \u2014 a rare occurrence since 2021.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not \u201ccrash incoming\u201d territory, but it\u2019s the kind of micro-signal traders and economists tuck away for later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Chart Check: MCD\u2019s Weekly Picture<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>McD\u2019s tapped the <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/fibonacci-retracement\/\"><strong>61.8% Fibonacci retracement<\/strong><\/a><strong> at $309.95<\/strong> last week, then backed off, leaving a wick on the weekly candle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1051\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.11.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14640\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.11.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.11-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.11-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OB-25.08.11-768x526.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A few key levels to note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Support:<\/strong> $300.92 (Value Area Low). A clean break here could open a path toward $276.53.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resistance:<\/strong> $309.95 (Fib) and $313.84 (POC). Holding above either could suggest buyers are still hungry.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The context to note here is this: <\/strong>a drop below $300 in volume profile terms can be seen as a \u201cfailed auction\u201d \u2014 essentially, the market saying no to higher prices for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, none of this guarantees a direction \u2014 but it does frame where the next decisive move could form, at least for the stock itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Don\u2019t Let This Distract You From the Bigger Picture<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In <em>The Big Short<\/em>, you knew the housing bubble was in trouble when the condos started stacking up in the wrong hands. In 2025, maybe this breakfast kerfuffle is just one of many small tells in a much bigger story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not a crystal ball \u2014 tech and AI names are still driving the market narrative, and McDonald\u2019s isn\u2019t exactly trading on the same hype cycle. But shifts in everyday spending, even on something as small as a breakfast sandwich,<strong> can be early clues about broader consumer confidence.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And confidence, or the lack of it, eventually finds its way into earnings across sectors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>McDonald\u2019s breakfast sales dip \u2014 a small tell on consumer stress while tech and AI stocks steal the market spotlight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":14637,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[17],"class_list":["post-14636","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-opening-bell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>McDonald\u2019s Breakfast Sales Drop; A Sign of Weak Consumer Spending? - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"McDonald\u2019s breakfast sales dip \u2014 a small tell on consumer stress while tech and AI stocks steal the market spotlight.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/opening-bell\/mcdonalds-breakfast-sales-drop-a-sign-of-weak-consumer-spending\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"McDonald\u2019s Breakfast Sales Drop; A Sign of Weak Consumer Spending? 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