{"id":13604,"date":"2025-07-07T06:18:05","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T06:18:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/?post_type=market_insights&p=13604"},"modified":"2025-07-07T06:19:28","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T06:19:28","slug":"q3-2025-equities-forecast-final-push-higher-before-fed-pivot","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/quarterly-forecast\/q3-2025-equities-forecast-final-push-higher-before-fed-pivot\/","title":{"rendered":"Q3 2025 Equities Forecast: Final Push Higher Before Fed Pivot?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Despite the turbulent news cycle of Q2, the equities market has made an excellent recovery from their lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between the stories of tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and war tensions, the markets appear to, well, simply no longer care about these stories and continue trotting to new highs. On top of that, Federal reserve rate cuts appear to be just around the corner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As veterans of the game know, the market likes to price in future expectations. So in Q3, we may just be seeing that \u2014 a final push higher<\/em><\/strong> in anticipation of the cuts<\/em>, in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there\u2019s currently a 66.2% probability of a rate cut in September, the highest among all remaining meetings of 2025. In December, the rates are expected to reach 4.00% \u2014 an average expectation of 2 rate cuts before end of year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Source: Fedwatch Tool<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So this brings up a very interesting thought\u2026 is the Fed Pivot story back?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we delve deeper into the charts, you\u2019ll notice that most of these indices are completing a major 5-wave uptrend structure, which in Elliot Wave Theory<\/a>, begets the beginning of an ABC 3-wave correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This aligns perfectly with the Fed Pivot story, which amazingly, is also hidden from public discussion now. This only gives me more reason to believe that Q3 or Q4 will create the blow-off top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Fed Pivot:<\/strong> Refers to a major shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s monetary policy stance \u2014 typically from tightening (raising rates or reducing the balance sheet) to easing (cutting rates or pausing hikes). Markets often anticipate this pivot before it happens, as it can mark the end of restrictive policy and the beginning of more accommodative conditions, usually in response to slowing economic growth<\/strong> or easing inflation<\/strong>.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Q3 Targets for S&P 500 Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SPX has made a strong recovery, but it\u2019s unrealistic to expect a straight shot to new highs without a breather. If a pullback does occur, the Ichimoku<\/a> Chikou Span (lagging span) suggests a key level to watch: the week of July 28th must not close below the prior all-time high of $6,145.68<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A weekly close under this could trigger a deeper retracement toward $5,773, where key price structure and the Ichimoku cloud aligns, leading to roughly an 8% correction, which would still be considered healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the bullish side, we\u2019ve mapped out Fibonacci extension levels, following a possible 5-wave advance:<\/p>\n\n\n\n