{"id":12392,"date":"2025-04-14T04:44:52","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T04:44:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.wpengine.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=9961"},"modified":"2025-05-09T09:13:52","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T09:13:52","slug":"death-cross-bitcoin-2025","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/chart-of-the-day\/death-cross-bitcoin-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Looming Death Cross on Bitcoin as Dollar Hits Three-Year Lows"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s breaking out of a falling wedge and retesting structure highs \u2014 ha, a classic reversal setup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But let\u2019s not sugarcoat it: there\u2019s a looming <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/strategies\/death-cross\/\">Death Cross<\/a> on the daily, and that\u2019s a red flag worth watching. Historically, these crosses (50 EMA slicing below the 200) get billed as bearish \u2014 but in crypto\u2019s twisted logic, they often mark bottoms, not breakdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, with China ramping up its tariffs on the US in retaliation, the US dollar is seeing pressure to the downside. The Dollar has hit its lowest point in three years, wicking to ~99.04, while many were expecting 100 to hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So when we stitch this together, what\u2019s the playbook for Bitcoin and the DXY from here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bitcoin Daily Chart \u2014 Death Cross Bear Trap Almost in Fruition<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin has been known to bottom whenever a death cross\u2014the Daily EMA 50 crossing below the 200\u2014flashes on the price chart. Though this has not yet come to fruition, there have been moments where a looming Death Cross in itself has signalled the bottom, such as in September 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Does this mean that Bitcoin\u2019s bottom is currently in? No.<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the price is being rejected by the 50 and 200 <a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/exponential-moving-average\/\">exponential moving averages<\/a>, so there\u2019s still a possibility we can re-enter the falling wedge\u2019s range. If this happens, a rejection from here down to $71,450 is possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Bitcoin can break above the daily 50 and 200 EMAs, a rise to these prices are on the cards:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Previous swing high near $88,600<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>50% Fib level at $92,160<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Falling wedge measured move around $95,000<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>And the 61.8% retracement at $96,275<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In short: keep your eyes on the EMAs. We\u2019re at a technical fork.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/COTD-25.04.14-BTC-1-1024x701.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9964\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Dollar Sinks \u2014 DXY Hits Three-Year Lows Amid Trade Tensions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Over in FX land, the dollar\u2019s under the gun. DXY just wicked down to 99.04 \u2014 the lowest print in three years \u2014 as trade tensions between the U.S. and China pick up steam. Markets were expecting 100 to hold. It didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the monthly chart, DXY\u2019s carved out a megaphone (expanding triangle) structure \u2014 and that sets up a broad range. Breakout targets point either toward the 2001 highs or 2018 lows, depending on which edge gives first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But geopolitics will drive the next leg.<strong> China\u2019s tariff retaliation throws another wrench into the mix. <\/strong>Traders should keep a close eye on recent developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/COTD-25.04.14-DXY.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9968\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What does this mean for the Yen Carry trade?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The current market setup may be hinting at the <em>early stages<\/em> of a Yen carry trade unwind\u2014but we\u2019re not there yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The DXY is falling<\/strong>, hitting a three-year low near 99.04. That suggests the USD is under broad pressure, <em>not<\/em> gaining strength as it would during a full unwind.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bitcoin is bouncing<\/strong>, breaking out of a falling wedge and retesting structure. That\u2019s typical of risk-on behaviour\u2014again, not something we\u2019d expect if USD strength from a carry unwind was fully underway.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Japanese equities have been outperforming<\/strong>, and even Warren Buffett is doubling down on Japan. This might signal investors are repositioning <em>ahead<\/em> of a policy shift from the Bank of Japan\u2014but they haven\u2019t started yanking money out of U.S. markets yet.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For context, the carry trade works like this: investors borrow Yen at near-zero rates, convert to USD, and funnel that into higher-yielding US assets like equities or bonds. It\u2019s a core engine of global liquidity. But that engine may soon sputter.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/wen-unwind-meme.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9966\" style=\"width:473px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line?<\/strong><strong><br><\/strong>We\u2019re in a <em>pre-unwind positioning phase<\/em>. For now, the dollar&#8217;s weakness and crypto strength suggest the carry trade is still intact, but traders are watching closely for the inflection point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>You may also be interested in:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-alchemy-markets wp-block-embed-alchemy-markets\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"yeMPm6rZ9P\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.wpengine.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/tariff-turmoil-market-mayhem-7-wild-days-that-left-everything-the-same\/\">Tariff Turmoil &amp; Market Mayhem: 7 Wild Days That Left Everything the Same<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Tariff Turmoil &amp; Market Mayhem: 7 Wild Days That Left Everything the Same&#8221; &#8212; Alchemy Markets\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.wpengine.com\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/tariff-turmoil-market-mayhem-7-wild-days-that-left-everything-the-same\/embed\/#?secret=dj95tLWruU#?secret=yeMPm6rZ9P\" data-secret=\"yeMPm6rZ9P\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin eyes reversal as a Death Cross looms; DXY breaks to three-year lows amid China-U.S. trade tensions. Key levels and macro risks in focus.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":12541,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[18],"class_list":["post-12392","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-chart-of-the-day"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Looming Death Cross on Bitcoin as Dollar Hits Three-Year Lows - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin eyes reversal as a Death Cross looms; DXY breaks to three-year lows amid China-U.S. trade tensions. 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