{"id":12368,"date":"2025-03-21T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-21T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.wpengine.com\/?post_type=market_insights&#038;p=9544"},"modified":"2025-05-12T07:41:13","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T07:41:13","slug":"post-fed-market-outlook-consumer-trends-uk-policy-and-spx-technical-levels","status":"publish","type":"market_insights","link":"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/de\/education\/market-insights\/weekly-outlook\/post-fed-market-outlook-consumer-trends-uk-policy-and-spx-technical-levels\/","title":{"rendered":"Post-Fed Market Outlook: Consumer Trends, UK Policy, and SPX Technical Levels"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>United States: Consumers in the Spotlight Amid Growing Concerns<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Consumer Sentiment \u2013 Tuesday, March 18<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>This week kicks off with a focus on&nbsp;<strong>U.S. consumer sentiment and spending<\/strong>&nbsp;data. Recently, households have grown increasingly cautious. Worries are rising over:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Government spending cuts<\/strong>&nbsp;that could affect jobs and entitlements.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Potential tariffs<\/strong>&nbsp;that may drive up prices and pinch household budgets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Falling equity markets<\/strong>, adding to the nervousness about economic stability.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This combination is making consumers more hesitant, fueling fears about the broader economic outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Inflation &amp; Personal Spending \u2013 Friday, March 22<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite softer consumer sentiment,&nbsp;<strong>Fed Chair Jerome Powell<\/strong>&nbsp;remains calm. He emphasized that sentiment data has not been a reliable indicator of actual consumption lately, and there&#8217;s no rush to change monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All eyes will be on&nbsp;<strong>February&#8217;s personal spending report<\/strong>. January saw a decline:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u20130.2% MoM<\/strong>&nbsp;in nominal terms.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u20130.5% MoM<\/strong>&nbsp;in volume terms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the forecast for February looks more positive:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>+0.7% MoM<\/strong>&nbsp;(nominal).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>+0.4% MoM<\/strong>&nbsp;(volume).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, economists warn that consumer spending may soften in the months ahead. If it does, this could pave the way for a potential&nbsp;<strong>Fed rate cut in September<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>United Kingdom: Inflation and Fiscal Policy in Focus<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Inflation Update \u2013 Wednesday, March 20<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The UK\u2019s&nbsp;<strong>headline CPI (Consumer Price Index)<\/strong>&nbsp;is expected to dip slightly this week. But the broader trend for 2025 remains upward. Key drivers include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Energy prices<\/strong>&nbsp;are no longer pulling inflation down.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>CPI may peak close to 4%<\/strong>&nbsp;by the second half of the year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Services inflation<\/strong>&nbsp;is likely to show gradual improvement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>February\u2019s data may show a modest decline, but spring could bring more noticeable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Spring Budget Statement \u2013 Wednesday, March 20<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is expected to deliver a cautious&nbsp;<strong>Spring Statement<\/strong>. With rising&nbsp;<strong>debt interest costs<\/strong>, the Treasury is under pressure to identify savings and stay within fiscal rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Key takeaways:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The upcoming changes will likely have&nbsp;<strong>minimal short-term impact<\/strong>&nbsp;on the economy and the Bank of England.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, they do set the stage for&nbsp;<strong>tougher decisions in the Autumn<\/strong>, including potential&nbsp;<strong>tax increases<\/strong>&nbsp;later in the year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>SPX 1H Chart Analysis \u2013 Post-Fed Price Action<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-1-1024x701.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9545\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As we move into the&nbsp;<strong>post-Fed<\/strong>&nbsp;trading environment, we can see that&nbsp;<strong>SPX<\/strong>&nbsp;is attempting to push towards the&nbsp;<strong>upper bound<\/strong>of the&nbsp;<strong>ascending channel<\/strong>. The market is showing signs of a potential continuation of this short-term uptrend, with buyers stepping in near the lower boundary of the channel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A key level to watch is the&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alchemymarkets.com\/education\/indicators\/vwap\/\">VWAP<\/a> line (blue)<\/strong>, which is positioned above the current price. This could act as a magnet for price action, especially if momentum continues to build.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If SPX maintains strength and follows this trajectory, we could see further upside testing around&nbsp;<strong>5,750\u20135,780<\/strong>. However, a rejection at the VWAP or upper channel resistance could bring another retest of lower support levels. Keep an eye on price reactions as we approach these key technical zones.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the Fed event behind us, markets are reacting to key economic signals. U.S. consumer sentiment and spending data take center stage, while the UK faces inflation and fiscal policy shifts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":162,"featured_media":12465,"parent":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","market_insights_categories":[14],"class_list":["post-12368","market_insights","type-market_insights","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_insights_categories-weekly-outlook"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Post-Fed Market Outlook: Consumer Trends, UK Policy, and SPX Technical Levels - Alchemy Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get the latest weekly outlook on developed markets, focusing on the United States and United Kingdom. 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